Saints To Go Marching Down ?
An interesting situation has developed at the foot of the Championship. Following Sheffield Wednesday's win at Wolves (hooray !), they have closed to within a point of Southampton. The business end (complete with the relegation line of doom) now looks like this :
20 Southampton...P 39 Pts 42
21 Sheffield Wed...P 40 Pts 41
-----------------------------------
22 Millwall...........P 40 Pts 36
The Saints have a game in hand, but it's an away game. Sheffield Wednesday are in much better form, having beaten Preston and Wolves in their last two games. All of which would suggest to me that Wednesday should be a slightly lower price to be relegated than Southampton, in the event that Millwall can catch either of them. Southampton are at home to Millwall on Easter Monday, and if the Lions could win that it would definitely be game on.
And yet we look on Betfair to see that Wednesday are 3.3 to be relegated. Southampton are 10.5 !
I have immediately snapped up 2 points on the Saints. I have also posted an offer to lay Wednesday, 2 pts @ 4.5 . If someone takes that (and you can take it yourself if you think I'm full of it), that will give us a position as follows :
Southampton go down : +21
Wednesday go down : -11
Neither go down : level
I'll update this if the Wednesday bet is matched, otherwise it's just 2 points on Southampton @ 10.5 .
Update : Someone has snapped up the bait. Must also update my terrible arithmetic, Wednesday down = -9. Jeez I can't even add up properly. Unlucky to West Brom, that would have been a double bubble if they could have squeezed out a result. Still, the Baggies are going down 2-1 in the last 5 minutes, Birmingham are getting whacked 3-0 and talking as if it's a good result. Which in a way it is.
20 Southampton...P 39 Pts 42
21 Sheffield Wed...P 40 Pts 41
-----------------------------------
22 Millwall...........P 40 Pts 36
The Saints have a game in hand, but it's an away game. Sheffield Wednesday are in much better form, having beaten Preston and Wolves in their last two games. All of which would suggest to me that Wednesday should be a slightly lower price to be relegated than Southampton, in the event that Millwall can catch either of them. Southampton are at home to Millwall on Easter Monday, and if the Lions could win that it would definitely be game on.
And yet we look on Betfair to see that Wednesday are 3.3 to be relegated. Southampton are 10.5 !
I have immediately snapped up 2 points on the Saints. I have also posted an offer to lay Wednesday, 2 pts @ 4.5 . If someone takes that (and you can take it yourself if you think I'm full of it), that will give us a position as follows :
Southampton go down : +21
Wednesday go down : -11
Neither go down : level
I'll update this if the Wednesday bet is matched, otherwise it's just 2 points on Southampton @ 10.5 .
Update : Someone has snapped up the bait. Must also update my terrible arithmetic, Wednesday down = -9. Jeez I can't even add up properly. Unlucky to West Brom, that would have been a double bubble if they could have squeezed out a result. Still, the Baggies are going down 2-1 in the last 5 minutes, Birmingham are getting whacked 3-0 and talking as if it's a good result. Which in a way it is.
posted by Andy_Ward @ 4:16 PM
4 Comments:
At 5:43 PM,
89TJ said…
Neat position if you can get the Wednesday part laid.
Nice to read some criticism of Alan Green a few entries back. The most mysteriously over-rated commentator in football history.
My own bias has me shaking my head at his description some years back of Dion Dublin as one of the most over-rated players in the game. This when Dublin was busy joining the 100-Premiership-goals club whilst playing variously for Coventry and Aston Villa and sometimes at centre-back.
At 6:15 PM,
Andy_Ward said…
I might not get on with the Wednesday part. When there's not much money on offer in a market, price discrepancies are really dictated by whether anyone actually wants to put some money up. I still think 10.5 is long for Southampton though.
I always thought Dublin was a good player, probably not international class to be fair but there's no shame in that. I even saw him play for Cambridge !
Andy.
At 12:30 PM,
Anonymous said…
you're right about wednesday, they will definitely stay up and are playing crewe and brighton on the run in. I'm not totally convinced about Milwall's ability though...
At 10:24 PM,
89TJ said…
I saw Dion play for Cambridge too many times to count, hence my bias :-)
International class, who knows. I think he was certainly better in his prime than Crouch. But big black centre-forwards can do all the cushioned sidefoot volleys, backheels, magic touches and dummies they like, they'll always be a 'strapping target man'.
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