Despite His White Boots

Football, football, football and, if the mood takes me, more football.

Tuesday, June 06, 2006

And There's More

As a general principle, I feel that favourites in football group betting are often over-valued. In the Champions League and the World Cup. I have no hesitation at all in laying Germany to win Group A, 6 pts @ 1.45. Which way round was I doing this ? 6 pts means the backer is putting up 6 points. My liability is 2.7 . Poland are no mugs and who knows what Ecuador might do. Basically I'm backing the field in this group at better than 2-1, I like.

I hesitate slightly looking at France and Spain. France's problems have been documented here lately. I've read two separate reports today stating that Raul is shot and Spain are basically in disarray. The trouble is, they both have really cheesy-looking groups. But I don't remember France's group looking so tough in 2002 and they didn't even score a frigging goal. So, courage to the sticking post and all that, lay France to win Group G, 6 pts @ 1.47 and Spain to win Group H, 5 pts @ 1.69.

I'm not tempted by any more of those ; Portugal and England look reasonably priced, Brazil are nailed on (but not quite backable at 1.3) and the other groups are more open.

I suppose I really ought to back someone to win it. Sigh. I can't see past Brazil although I'm not entirely sure the odds justify them winning 4 knockout ties, what with all the luck factor. I can't really summon up the confidence to back anyone else to go all the way though, I'll stick with my semi-final bets for the other teams I like (or dislike the least in truth). 10 pts on Brazil to win @ 4.

That should tide us over till the match betting starts ! What a jamboree of football it's going to be. Predictably, the BBC's promise of Internet coverage has turned to dust, once you dig far enough into it there's only a small list of ISPs who support it, most of whom I've never heard of and are presumably the Noble Pokers of the ISP world. Bollocks to them (the BBC), I'll just watch it at work and in the gym. So there !

Update : I have just realised that Ecuador are rubbish, unless any of their games are at Base Camp 3. Which they aren't. It's still a bet though.


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