Despite His White Boots

Football, football, football and, if the mood takes me, more football.

Monday, August 14, 2006

Straight Back Down

There's something very strange going on with Watford and I can't work out what it is. When they clinched the signing of Big Dan I thought I'd have a look on Betfair and if they were say 3-1 to stay up I'd maybe have a punt. To my surprise they were only about 11-8 (that is 8-11 to go down). This is so far away from what I was expecting that I've gone the other way and backed them to be relegated. That just can't be right. How can that be right ?

Of course I respect Boothroyd and what he did last year but he's not a miracle worker. Wigan and West Ham were surely exceptions last year rather than the harbingers of a new trend. On the market, Wigan, Fulham and Charlton are the three established Premiership teams around 4-5 to drop out this year. Charlton I think will be fine, and while I could see Wigan and/or Fulham struggling, it just doesn't add up to me. The Times today said it would be "the biggest shock in recent years" if Watford could survive, and while I maybe wouldn't go as far as that, it sounds more like it's in the ballpark to me.

In line with my policy this season of betting bigger and more selectively, 50 points on the nose Watford to be relegated @ 1.72 . Or, if you prefer, 5 points but a point is 10 times bigger than last season :-)


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